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Recall Drive at 40% of 1st Goal Recall supporters had turned in 376,008 signatures as of June 16, Shelley said. State law requires 897,158 valid signatures to be submitted for the recall. Those signatures, however, would have to be verified before an election could be called — a process that could take weeks. Because of that, backers of the recall generally agree they would have to hit the target by July 16 in order to guarantee a vote in November. Alternatively, if supporters gathered about 1.2 million signatures by mid-August, they could qualify for a November ballot without the lengthy and potentially acrimonious hand count to verify signatures. If not enough signatures are turned in by either of those deadlines, a recall could still take place, but the election would probably be held in the spring, most likely in conjunction with the presidential primary in March. Republicans believe that timing would favor Davis. Whether the recall supporters can complete their signature gathering in time was debated Tuesday. "It's not my job to speculate," said Shelley. "But where we are now is a long way from 1.2 [million] to 1.3 million. Do the math." But Dave Gilliard, director of Rescue California, the recall support organization largely funded by Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Vista), said, "The momentum is unbelievable now." "July is what matters," Gilliard said, estimating that recall backers actually have collected closer to 750,000 signatures. On Tuesday, Issa reported $500,000 in new donations from himself to his gubernatorial campaign, bringing the total he has invested in that effort to $600,000. He has also provided $1.15 million to the petition drive to qualify the recall for the ballot. Democrats expressed skepticism about the petition claims. "It will be impossible for them to keep up the astronomical pace that they're claiming," said Carroll Wills, a director of Taxpayers Against the Governor's Recall, the anti-recall organization set up by backers of Davis. Wills said that the early signature drives have been concentrated in traditional Republican strongholds — San Diego, Orange County, the Inland Empire and the Central Valley. Efforts to expand support would have to take place in more Democratic counties such as Los Angeles, he said. In addition to the petitions already submitted to Shelley's office, county officials surveyed by The Times reported that they had received 28,000 petitions through Tuesday, bringing the total to at least 404,000. Not all counties provided numbers, however, and some that did included estimates of petitions in boxes that had not yet been opened by county authorities. Because the recall drive has succeeded in amassing more than 10% of the total signatures required to qualify for the ballot, county authorities will now begin conducting a random check of petitions to validate signatures. A November election is guaranteed only if the required signatures can be certified by Sept. 4. That would happen either by a hand count of 897,158 verified signatures or by the submission of 1.2 million by Aug. 16. If the petitions are certified by Sept. 4, Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante is required by state law to call a special election within 80 days. If recall backers miss that deadline but gather enough petitions after mid-August, a recall would be scheduled for March. Backers of the recall believe a March ballot would tilt against them because of the likely high turnout of Democrats voting in the presidential primary. Strategists in both parties believe a likely low turnout in a November election would favor the Republicans.
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